Market-implied odds, Fed and ECB
Fed and ECB rate decision probabilities
See whether a cut, hold, or hike is priced into the next FOMC and ECB meeting, and how those odds moved over the past 60 days. Free on iPhone, and live on this page.
Free, no account, no in-app purchases. iOS 17 or later.RateRadar is a free iPhone app that tracks the U.S. federal funds rate and the market-implied probability of every upcoming Federal Reserve (FOMC) and European Central Bank rate decision. It computes its own odds from 30-Day Fed Funds Futures and €STR OIS data, never scraped, and keeps 60 days of probability history.
The app
What the iPhone app shows you
The same probabilities you see below, on your home screen, with the history chart and alerts that this page cannot give you.
More on the app: what it does, how the alerts work, and how it compares to CME FedWatch.
Next decision
Federal Reserve · September 16, 2026
Move +25bp
Current policy rate 3.625%. Market puts 99% on this outcome.
Most likely path · cumulative
Fed path
Most-likely outcome at each upcoming meeting, chained in order.
Cumulative pricing
+54 bps by Dec 9
ECB path
Most-likely outcome at each upcoming meeting, chained in order.
Cumulative pricing
-0 bps by Dec 17
Implied rate curves
Implied policy-rate path
Federal Reserve. Expected rate at each upcoming meeting, derived from today's probability distribution.
Implied policy-rate path
European Central Bank. Expected rate at each upcoming meeting, derived from today's probability distribution.
Per-meeting probabilities · Fed
Wednesday, September 16, 2026
FOMC meeting · FED
Most likely
+25bp · 99%
| Outcome | Probability | Moved · last 7d | Post-meeting rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -50bp | 0.0% | flat | 3.125% | |
| -25bp | 0.0% | flat | 3.375% | |
| Hold | 1.4% | -36.4pp | 3.625% | |
| +25bp | 98.6% | +36.4pp | 3.875% | |
| +50bp | 0.0% | flat | 4.125% |
Probability history · last 60 days
-50bp-25bpHold+25bp+50bp
Wednesday, October 28, 2026
FOMC meeting · FED
Most likely
Hold · 55%
| Outcome | Probability | Moved · last 7d | Post-meeting rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -50bp | 0.0% | flat | 3.371% | |
| -25bp | 0.0% | flat | 3.621% | |
| Hold | 54.6% | -17.6pp | 3.871% | |
| +25bp | 45.4% | +17.6pp | 4.121% | |
| +50bp | 0.0% | flat | 4.371% |
Probability history · last 60 days
-50bp-25bpHold+25bp+50bp
Wednesday, December 9, 2026
FOMC meeting · FED
Most likely
+25bp · 70%
| Outcome | Probability | Moved · last 7d | Post-meeting rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -50bp | 0.0% | flat | 3.485% | |
| -25bp | 0.0% | flat | 3.735% | |
| Hold | 30.0% | -14.0pp | 3.985% | |
| +25bp | 70.0% | +14.0pp | 4.235% | |
| +50bp | 0.0% | flat | 4.485% |
Probability history · last 60 days
-50bp-25bpHold+25bp+50bp
Per-meeting probabilities · ECB
Thursday, December 17, 2026
ECB Governing Council · ECB
Most likely
Hold · 100%
| Outcome | Probability | Moved · last 7d | Post-meeting rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -50bp | 0.0% | flat | 2.000% | |
| -25bp | 0.0% | flat | 2.250% | |
| Hold | 100.0% | flat | 2.500% | |
| +25bp | 0.0% | flat | 2.750% | |
| +50bp | 0.0% | flat | 3.000% |
Probability history · last 60 days
-50bp-25bpHold+25bp+50bp
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
- Is there a free app to track the Fed interest rate?
- Yes. RateRadar is a free iPhone app that tracks the U.S. federal funds rate and the market-implied odds of every upcoming Federal Reserve decision. It shows whether markets expect a hold, cut, or hike, the most likely rate path, and 60 days of how those odds moved. No account is required.
- Where does RateRadar get its rate data?
- RateRadar computes its own probabilities in-house from 30-Day Fed Funds Futures and €STR OIS quotes, using the public CME step-function methodology. It never scrapes CME FedWatch or ECB Watch. Every number is derived from free market prices, and the full method is documented on the app's methodology page.
- When is the next FOMC meeting?
- The FOMC is the Federal Reserve committee that sets U.S. interest rates, and it meets eight times a year. RateRadar always shows the next scheduled meeting with a live countdown, the market-implied probability of a hold, cut, or hike, and the current policy rate, so you never have to look up the calendar.
- Does RateRadar track the European Central Bank too?
- Yes. Alongside the Federal Reserve, RateRadar tracks market-implied probabilities for every upcoming European Central Bank rate decision. It shows the ECB's most likely path, the implied forward rate curve, and a side-by-side Fed-versus-ECB divergence view, so you can see where the two central banks are expected to move apart.
- What does market-implied probability mean?
- A market-implied probability is the chance of a rate outcome inferred from the prices traders pay for interest-rate futures, not a forecast or opinion. RateRadar derives these odds from Fed Funds Futures and €STR OIS using the published CME method, then tracks how they shift daily into each meeting. It is not financial advice.
- Can I see how rate expectations changed over time?
- Yes. Historical tracking is RateRadar's core feature. It saves the probability of each outcome daily and keeps 60 days of history per meeting, so you can see how the odds of a cut, hold, or hike shifted week by week, not just today's snapshot. Sharp-move alerts flag big changes.
- Is RateRadar free, and does it have in-app purchases?
- RateRadar is free to download and has no in-app purchases and no subscription. There is nothing to unlock and no account to create. The app carries advertising, which is what pays for the data pipeline and hosting.
Get the odds and the alerts on your phone.