Market-implied probabilities for Fed and ECB interest-rate decisions, with historical tracking over days and weeks. Computed from Fed Funds Futures and €STR OIS. Never scraped.
Current policy rate 2%. Market puts 100% on this outcome.
FOMC meeting · FED
| Outcome | Probability | Moved · last 8d | Post-meeting rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -50bp | 0.0% | flat | 3.125% | |
| -25bp | 0.0% | flat | 3.375% | |
| Hold | 90.0% | +20.0pp | 3.625% | |
| +25bp | 10.0% | -20.0pp | 3.875% | |
| +50bp | 0.0% | flat | 4.125% |
FOMC meeting · FED
| Outcome | Probability | Moved · last 8d | Post-meeting rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -50bp | 0.0% | flat | 3.150% | |
| -25bp | 0.0% | flat | 3.400% | |
| Hold | 48.6% | flat | 3.650% | |
| +25bp | 51.4% | flat | 3.900% | |
| +50bp | 0.0% | flat | 4.150% |
FOMC meeting · FED
| Outcome | Probability | Moved · last 8d | Post-meeting rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -50bp | 0.0% | flat | 3.279% | |
| -25bp | 0.0% | flat | 3.529% | |
| Hold | 81.4% | +10.0pp | 3.779% | |
| +25bp | 18.6% | -10.0pp | 4.029% | |
| +50bp | 0.0% | flat | 4.279% |
ECB Governing Council · ECB
| Outcome | Probability | Moved · last 8d | Post-meeting rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -50bp | 0.0% | flat | 1.750% | |
| -25bp | 0.0% | flat | 2.000% | |
| Hold | 100.0% | flat | 2.250% | |
| +25bp | 0.0% | flat | 2.500% | |
| +50bp | 0.0% | flat | 2.750% |
ECB Governing Council · ECB
| Outcome | Probability | Moved · last 8d | Post-meeting rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -50bp | 0.0% | flat | 1.750% | |
| -25bp | 0.0% | flat | 2.000% | |
| Hold | 100.0% | flat | 2.250% | |
| +25bp | 0.0% | flat | 2.500% | |
| +50bp | 0.0% | flat | 2.750% |
ECB Governing Council · ECB
| Outcome | Probability | Moved · last 8d | Post-meeting rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -50bp | 0.0% | flat | 1.750% | |
| -25bp | 0.0% | flat | 2.000% | |
| Hold | 100.0% | flat | 2.250% | |
| +25bp | 0.0% | flat | 2.500% | |
| +50bp | 0.0% | flat | 2.750% |