Market-implied probabilities for Fed and ECB interest-rate decisions, with historical tracking over days and weeks. Computed from Fed Funds Futures and €STR OIS. Never scraped.
Current policy rate 2%. Market puts 56% on this outcome.
FOMC meeting · FED
| Outcome | Probability | Moved · last 7d | Post-meeting rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -50bp | 0.0% | flat | 3.875% | |
| -25bp | 55.4% | flat | 4.125% | |
| Hold | 44.6% | flat | 4.375% | |
| +25bp | 0.0% | flat | 4.625% | |
| +50bp | 0.0% | flat | 4.875% |
FOMC meeting · FED
| Outcome | Probability | Moved · last 7d | Post-meeting rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -50bp | 100.0% | flat | 3.737% | |
| -25bp | 0.0% | flat | 3.987% | |
| Hold | 0.0% | flat | 4.237% | |
| +25bp | 0.0% | flat | 4.487% | |
| +50bp | 0.0% | flat | 4.737% |
FOMC meeting · FED
| Outcome | Probability | Moved · last 7d | Post-meeting rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -50bp | 0.0% | flat | 3.015% | |
| -25bp | 0.0% | flat | 3.265% | |
| Hold | 0.0% | flat | 3.515% | |
| +25bp | 0.0% | flat | 3.765% | |
| +50bp | 100.0% | flat | 4.015% |
ECB Governing Council · ECB
| Outcome | Probability | Moved · last 7d | Post-meeting rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -50bp | 0.0% | flat | 1.500% | |
| -25bp | 44.2% | flat | 1.750% | |
| Hold | 55.8% | flat | 2.000% | |
| +25bp | 0.0% | flat | 2.250% | |
| +50bp | 0.0% | flat | 2.500% |
ECB Governing Council · ECB
| Outcome | Probability | Moved · last 7d | Post-meeting rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -50bp | 38.7% | flat | 1.389% | |
| -25bp | 61.3% | flat | 1.639% | |
| Hold | 0.0% | flat | 1.889% | |
| +25bp | 0.0% | flat | 2.139% | |
| +50bp | 0.0% | flat | 2.389% |
ECB Governing Council · ECB
| Outcome | Probability | Moved · last 7d | Post-meeting rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -50bp | 0.0% | flat | 1.043% | |
| -25bp | 7.7% | flat | 1.293% | |
| Hold | 92.3% | flat | 1.543% | |
| +25bp | 0.0% | flat | 1.793% | |
| +50bp | 0.0% | flat | 2.043% |