RateRadar
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Track Fed and ECB odds on your iPhone

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Probabilities are computed in house from 30 Day Fed Funds Futures and euro short-term rate data, then refreshed twice per business day. They describe what the market is pricing, not what a central bank will decide. RateRadar is informational and is not financial advice.

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Glossary

Plain-English definitions for the terms you'll see on RateRadar. No Bloomberg terminal required.

Download on the App StoreThe same glossary ships inside the iPhone app.
Basis point (bp / bps)
One hundredth of a percent. A 25 bps rate cut moves the target rate down by 0.25 percentage points (e.g., from 4.50% to 4.25%).
FOMC
Federal Open Market Committee. The 12-member body at the Federal Reserve that sets the US policy interest rate. Meets 8 times per year.
Fed Funds Target Rate
The interest rate the Fed targets for overnight lending between banks. Published as a 25-bp-wide range, for example 4.25% to 4.50%. The midpoint is what we use as the anchor for probability calculations.
Deposit Facility Rate (DFR)
The interest rate the ECB pays on overnight deposits from banks. Since 2023, the operational 'policy rate' for markets, which is what our ECB probabilities track.
€STR
Euro Short-Term Rate. The reference overnight rate in the eurozone, published by the ECB. Closely tracks the DFR (typically about 5 to 10 bps below).
OIS (Overnight Index Swap)
A swap contract where one side pays a fixed rate and the other pays the geometric average of an overnight rate (€STR for Europe, SOFR for the US). OIS curves are how markets price future central-bank policy.
Fed Funds Futures
CME-traded futures contracts that settle to the monthly average of the daily effective Fed Funds rate. The source of Fed probability calculations. Each contract month's price implies the market's average expected rate for that month.
Priced in
When markets have already adjusted futures prices to reflect an expected outcome, that outcome is 'priced in'. Actual moves that are fully priced in tend not to move asset prices much; surprises do.
Hawkish / Dovish
Hawkish = inclined toward higher rates (tighter policy) to fight inflation. Dovish = inclined toward lower rates (easier policy) to support growth. Describes both central bank officials and market sentiment.
Terminal rate
The market's expected peak (or trough) policy rate over a cycle. RateRadar's forward rate curve shows the market-implied path toward the current terminal.
Conditional probability
The probability of an outcome at a future meeting GIVEN a specific outcome at an earlier meeting. Example: 'If the Fed cuts 25 bps in June, what's the probability of another cut in July?'
Implied rate path
The sequence of market-expected policy rates at each future meeting, derived by chaining per-meeting expected changes. The forward curve on RateRadar visualizes this.
Cumulative pricing
The total expected change in the policy rate across all upcoming meetings in a window. For example, '-65 bps priced in by December' means markets expect roughly 2-3 cuts of 25 bps each by year-end.