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Probabilities are computed in house from 30 Day Fed Funds Futures and euro short-term rate data, then refreshed twice per business day. They describe what the market is pricing, not what a central bank will decide. RateRadar is informational and is not financial advice.

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Home / Glossary / Fed Funds Futures
Glossary

Fed Funds Futures

CME-traded futures contracts that settle to the monthly average of the daily effective Fed Funds rate. The source of Fed probability calculations. Each contract month's price implies the market's average expected rate for that month.

See it in action on the live probability tracker or read the full methodology.
Download on the App StoreEvery term is explained inside the free iPhone app too.
Related terms
  • Priced in
  • Hawkish / Dovish
  • Terminal rate
  • Conditional probability
← All glossary terms