The next decision, first thing
The dashboard opens on whichever meeting comes next, Fed or ECB, with a countdown, the current policy rate, and the outcome the market is leaning toward.
iPhone app
Fed rate tracker app for iPhone
RateRadar puts the market-implied odds of every upcoming FOMC and ECB decision on your phone, keeps 60 days of how those odds moved, and tells you when they move sharply.
Free. No account, no in-app purchases. iOS 17 or later.Screen by screen
Every outcome, not just the headline
Each meeting breaks out into its full distribution: hold, 25 bps, 50 bps, in either direction, each with its own probability and the post-meeting rate it implies.
Sixty days of how the odds moved
Under every meeting sits a history chart. The odds are saved each run and kept for 60 days, so you see the drift into the meeting rather than one frozen snapshot.
A nudge when something changes
Meeting reminders the evening before and the morning of each decision, plus a rate shift alert when the leading outcome flips or moves past a threshold you set.
What it is not
The honest limits
- It is not a forecast. A market-implied probability is what futures prices say traders are paying for an outcome. It is not a prediction of what the committee will decide, and it is not financial advice.
- It is not tick by tick. The cadence is deliberately twice per business day, after the European close and after the US close. If you need intraday ticks, you need a terminal, not this app.
- ECB odds are spot anchored today. The ECB side tracks the Governing Council calendar and the current Deposit Facility Rate. Forward-implied ECB probabilities of the same quality as the Fed side are not there yet.
- It carries ads. That is how a free app with a running data pipeline pays for itself. There is no paid tier that removes them.
- There is no widget. Alerts and the app itself are the ways in; there is no home screen widget and no Apple Watch app.
Where the numbers come from
Fed probabilities are computed in house from 30-Day Fed Funds Futures using the published step function decomposition. Euro area rates come from the ECB Data Portal, with a Federal Reserve Economic Data series as a fallback. Meeting calendars come from federalreserve.gov and ecb.europa.eu. Nothing is scraped from CME FedWatch or ECB Watch. The full derivation is on the methodology page, and the terms are defined in the glossary.
FAQ
Questions people ask before downloading
- Is there a free app to track Fed interest rate decisions?
- Yes. RateRadar is free to download from the App Store, has no in-app purchases and no subscription, and needs no account. It is funded by advertising, which appears inside the app.
- What iPhone do I need?
- RateRadar requires iOS 17 or later. It is an iPhone app; there is no iPad-specific layout, no Apple Watch app, and no home screen widget at this point.
- How often do the numbers update?
- The pipeline runs twice per business day, after the European close and after the US close, and writes a fresh snapshot each time. Between runs the app shows the last computed snapshot with its timestamp, so you always know how old a number is.
- Does the app cover the ECB as well as the Fed?
- It covers both calendars. Fed probabilities are derived forward from 30-Day Fed Funds Futures. ECB coverage tracks the Governing Council calendar and the current Deposit Facility Rate, and is spot anchored, because there is no free forward rate source of the same quality for the euro area yet.
Free on the App Store. iOS 17 or later.Related reading: how the rate cut alerts work, how this compares to CME FedWatch, the next FOMC meeting, and the live probability dashboard.