Compare market-implied probabilities and forward rate paths for the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. A growing divergence often signals shifting global macro expectations.
Fed pricing
+29 bps
cumulative expected change
ECB pricing
+0 bps
cumulative expected change
Divergence (Fed − ECB)
+29 bps
Fed is priced more hawkishly than ECB
Most-likely paths
Cumulative expected changes by meeting
Fed most-likely path
Most-likely outcome at each upcoming meeting, chained in order.