Divergence tracker
Fed vs ECB
Compare market-implied probabilities and forward rate paths for the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. A growing divergence often signals shifting global macro expectations.
Both central banks in one free iPhone app.Fed pricing
+54 bps
cumulative expected change
ECB pricing
-0 bps
cumulative expected change
Divergence (Fed − ECB)
+54 bps
Fed is priced more hawkishly than ECB
Most-likely paths
Cumulative expected changes by meeting
Fed most-likely path
Most-likely outcome at each upcoming meeting, chained in order.
Cumulative pricing
+54 bps by Dec 9
ECB most-likely path
Most-likely outcome at each upcoming meeting, chained in order.
Cumulative pricing
-0 bps by Dec 17
Implied rate curves
Forward path side by side
Implied policy-rate path
Federal Reserve. Expected rate at each upcoming meeting, derived from today's probability distribution.
Implied policy-rate path
European Central Bank. Expected rate at each upcoming meeting, derived from today's probability distribution.