Scenarios
Conditional rate paths
Pick a meeting and an outcome — for example “Fed cuts 25bp in March” — and see how the market-implied path for the following meetings re-anchors on that assumption.
…resolves to
What-if scenario. Assumes the subsequent meetings' market-implied distributions are unchanged (independence) and re-anchors the path on the selected outcome. This is not a forecast.
Baseline (today's market path)
Implied policy-rate path
Federal Reserve. Expected rate at each upcoming meeting, derived from today's probability distribution.
Conditional (Jun 17: -50bp)
Implied policy-rate path
Federal Reserve — if Jun 17: -50bp. Expected rate at each upcoming meeting, derived from today's probability distribution.