RateRadar
FedECBFed vs ECBScenariosMethodologyGlossaryBrokersAboutiPhone app

Track Fed and ECB odds on your iPhone

Free, no account, no in-app purchases. Requires iOS 17 or later.

Download on the App Store

Live tracking

  • Next Fed meeting
  • Next ECB meeting
  • Fed vs ECB
  • Rate scenarios

iPhone app

  • Fed rate tracker app
  • Rate cut alerts
  • CME FedWatch alternative

Reference

  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • About
  • Privacy

Probabilities are computed in house from 30 Day Fed Funds Futures and euro short-term rate data, then refreshed twice per business day. They describe what the market is pricing, not what a central bank will decide. RateRadar is informational and is not financial advice.

RateRadar in the Law of Large app collection

Scenarios

Conditional rate paths

Pick a meeting and an outcome, for example “Fed cuts 25bp in March”, and see how the market-implied path for the following meetings re-anchors on that assumption.

Download on the App StoreScenarios are in the iPhone app as well.
…resolves to

What-if scenario. Assumes the subsequent meetings' market-implied distributions are unchanged (independence) and re-anchors the path on the selected outcome. This is not a forecast.

Baseline (today's market path)
Implied policy-rate path
Federal Reserve. Expected rate at each upcoming meeting, derived from today's probability distribution.
Conditional (Sep 16: -50bp)
Implied policy-rate path
Federal Reserve, if Sep 16: -50bp. Expected rate at each upcoming meeting, derived from today's probability distribution.