RateRadar
FedECBFed vs ECBScenariosMethodologyGlossaryBrokersAboutiPhone app

Track Fed and ECB odds on your iPhone

Free, no account, no in-app purchases. Requires iOS 17 or later.

Download on the App Store

Live tracking

  • Next Fed meeting
  • Next ECB meeting
  • Fed vs ECB
  • Rate scenarios

iPhone app

  • Fed rate tracker app
  • Rate cut alerts
  • CME FedWatch alternative

Reference

  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • About
  • Privacy

Probabilities are computed in house from 30 Day Fed Funds Futures and euro short-term rate data, then refreshed twice per business day. They describe what the market is pricing, not what a central bank will decide. RateRadar is informational and is not financial advice.

RateRadar in the Law of Large app collection

Scenarios

Conditional rate paths

Pick a meeting and an outcome, for example “Fed cuts 25bp in March”, and see how the market-implied path for the following meetings re-anchors on that assumption.

Download on the App StoreScenarios are in the iPhone app as well.
…resolves to

What-if scenario. Assumes the subsequent meetings' market-implied distributions are unchanged (independence) and re-anchors the path on the selected outcome. This is not a forecast.

Baseline (today's market path)
Implied policy-rate path
Federal Reserve. Expected rate at each upcoming meeting, derived from today's probability distribution.
Conditional (none)

This is the last scheduled meeting, so there is no subsequent path to project. Pick an earlier meeting.