Comparison
CME FedWatch alternative for iPhone
The CME FedWatch Tool is the reference for what the market prices into an FOMC decision, and it is free. This page explains where it stays the better source, and the two or three things a phone app can do that a web tool does not.
Where FedWatch wins
Start there, not here
FedWatch is published by CME Group, the exchange where 30-Day Fed Funds Futures actually trade. That makes it the primary source rather than a derived one. It has the full contract-level detail, a far longer archive, and it moves with the live session instead of settling twice a day. If you want one authoritative read on what is priced in right now, that is the one to open, and RateRadar does not try to replace it.
RateRadar recomputes its odds independently from the same public futures prices, using the published step function method. It never scrapes FedWatch. Independent computation means the two can differ slightly, and when they do, the exchange is the one to trust.
Where a phone app helps
The gap it fills
The question that is hard to answer from any live tool is not what the odds are, it is what they were. A hold at 64 percent means something different when it was 30 percent a fortnight ago than when it has sat there all month. RateRadar saves the probability of every outcome on each run and keeps 60 days of it, charted underneath the meeting, and it will tell you when the leading outcome flips or moves past a threshold you choose. It also carries the ECB calendar next to the Fed one.
Side by side
Nine differences that actually matter
| Aspect | CME FedWatch | RateRadar | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Who publishes it | CME Group, the exchange where the contracts actually trade. It is the number the market quotes. | An independent app that recomputes the odds from the same public futures prices. | FedWatch |
| Authority | The reference. When a news story cites odds of a cut, this is usually the source. | Derived independently, so small differences from the exchange tool are possible. | FedWatch |
| Contract depth | Full contract-level detail, a long archive, and tools built around the futures curve. | One contract per meeting. Simpler, and noisier when a meeting falls near a month end. | FedWatch |
| Cost | Free on the web. | Free on the App Store, no in-app purchases. Carries ads. | Even |
| On a phone | A web page. Usable on mobile, but not built as an app. | A native iPhone app, built mobile first. | RateRadar |
| History of the odds | Shows what is priced now. Reading how the odds drifted over recent weeks is not the main view. | Saves the probability of every outcome each run and keeps 60 days, charted under each meeting. | RateRadar |
| ECB alongside the Fed | Fed focused. The ECB equivalent is a separate tool. | Both calendars in one app, though ECB coverage is spot anchored rather than forward implied. | RateRadar |
| Alerts | No push alerts when the odds move. | Meeting reminders and an alert when the leading outcome flips or moves past your threshold. | RateRadar |
| Update speed | Tracks the live session. | Twice per business day, after the European close and the US close. | FedWatch |
Four of the nine rows go to FedWatch. The comparison is only useful if it is allowed to lose.
Which to use
Honestly, both
Use FedWatch when you want the exchange's own live read on a single meeting, or when you need contract-level depth. Use RateRadar when you want the same question answered on your phone, want to see how the answer changed over the past 60 days, want the ECB calendar beside the Fed one, or want to be told when something moves rather than checking.
Free. No account, no in-app purchases.