RateRadar
FedECBFed vs ECBScenariosMethodologyGlossaryBrokersAboutiPhone app

Track Fed and ECB odds on your iPhone

Free, no account, no in-app purchases. Requires iOS 17 or later.

Download on the App Store

Live tracking

  • Next Fed meeting
  • Next ECB meeting
  • Fed vs ECB
  • Rate scenarios

iPhone app

  • Fed rate tracker app
  • Rate cut alerts
  • CME FedWatch alternative

Reference

  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • About
  • Privacy

Probabilities are computed in house from 30 Day Fed Funds Futures and euro short-term rate data, then refreshed twice per business day. They describe what the market is pricing, not what a central bank will decide. RateRadar is informational and is not financial advice.

RateRadar in the Law of Large app collection

Home / Glossary / Conditional probability
Glossary

Conditional probability

The probability of an outcome at a future meeting GIVEN a specific outcome at an earlier meeting. Example: 'If the Fed cuts 25 bps in June, what's the probability of another cut in July?'

See it in action on the live probability tracker or read the full methodology.
Download on the App StoreEvery term is explained inside the free iPhone app too.
Related terms
  • Implied rate path
  • Cumulative pricing
  • Basis point (bp / bps)
  • FOMC
← All glossary terms